This study applies a first-order Markov chain to analyze and model the academic progression of 317 students from the Faculty of Education at Thu Dau Mot University, utilizing their semester Grade Point Averages (GPA) as the core data. Students' GPAs were methodologically classified into four distinct academic performance states: Weak (0–4.99), Average (5.0–6.99), Good (7.0–7.99), and Excellent (8.0–10.0). Transition matrices were constructed to capture the movements between these performance states across consecutive semesters. Descriptive analysis reveals a positive performance trend, specifically a frequent transition from the Average to the Good group, and a high level of stability observed within the Excellent group, particularly in the later stages of the program. A crucial Chi-square test for homogeneity revealed statistically significant differences, indicating that the learning process is non-homogeneous over time, reflecting fluctuations in student learning behavior. However, to fulfill the objective of forecasting the expected distribution of student performance in the subsequent semester, a weighted average transition matrix was computed, giving greater emphasis to the influence of more recent academic data. Forecasting results suggest that approximately 90% of students are expected to concentrate within the Good and Excellent categories, confirming a high standard of academic performance and providing valuable empirical evidence for targeted student support and curriculum management within the Faculty of Education.

Industrial Revolution 4.0 has become an indispensable trend in the development process of Vietnam and is increasingly applied in university education. The essence of the Industrial Revolution 4.0 is the application of technology, data science and the use of artificial intelligence for production and human life. In this impact, modern education, especially higher education, is the field most affected. Online teaching, with tools to support the teaching of the digital age, has been changing dramatically in the teaching and learning situation in universities, helping to modernize education and integrate with the world, but there are many issues that teachers and managers must consider to change teaching methods and training strategies, in order to deliver the best results. Starting from the actual situation, we propose specific and comprehensive measures to improve the teaching efficiency of Thu Dau Mot University and, to meet the needs of Vietnamese society and the development of Industrial Revolution 4.0.