ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTING FOR VIETNAM’S DATA CENTER SECTOR: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING

By Nguyễn Bá Thành
DOI: 10.37550/tdmu.EJS/2025.04.681

This study forecasts electricity demand for Vietnam’s data center sector through 2030 in the context of rapid digitalization and the accelerating adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), both of which are expected to exert significant pressure on national power infrastructure. Using a baseline IT load of 524.7 MW in 2025 derived from industry market reports, the analysis employs a scenario-based approach with two growth trajectories: a high-growth case using a 16% CAGR and a market-aligned case using a 12.61% CAGR. Applying a Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) value of 1.4, consistent with Vietnam’s green data center standards, projected electricity demand increases from 734.6 MW in 2025 to 1,542.8 MW under the high-growth scenario and 1,330.6 MW under the moderate-growth scenario by 2030, corresponding to increases of 110% and 81%, respectively. These findings indicate that the expansion of digital infrastructure will require proactive power system planning. The study highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy through Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPAs) and implementing stringent energy-efficiency standards to ensure the sustainable development of Vietnam’s data center ecosystem.